PREDICTION MARKETS

Predictions for VfL Wolfsburg

Pinnacle Oracle, Polymarket Delta, Value Signals and Kelly Criterion — data-driven analysis for Wolfsburg.

PREDICTIONS | Loading data... |
01Oracle 02Spreads 03Signals Trade 04Season 05Matchday 06Table 07Kelly 08Methodology
TL;DR — Wolfsburg stands at position 17 after matchday 27 with 21 points (5W/6D/16L, goal difference -22). Form: LLLDL. Next match: Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg.
VfL WolfsburgWolfsburgBundesligaSpieltag 27Wolfsburg TabelleWolfsburg ErgebnisPinnacle OracleLeverkusen vs WolfsburgForm LLLDL
Pinnacle Oracle · Next Match
Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg · Saturday, April 04, 2026 at 13:30
Leverkusen
66.7%
Draw
19.0%
Wolfsburg
14.3%
Pinnacle Oracle (vig-adjusted) · 2026-03-25T06:54 UTC

Club Intelligence

What is Wolfsburg's current position?

Wolfsburg is in position 17 after matchday 27 with 21 points and a goal record of 35:57.

Who is Wolfsburg's next opponent?

The next match is Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg.

What is Wolfsburg's win probability?

According to the Pinnacle Oracle (vig-adjusted odds), Wolfsburg's win probability is 14.3%.

What is Wolfsburg's current form?

Form over the last 5 matches: LLLDL. Home record: 2W/3D/9L. Away record: 3W/3D/7L.

01

Pinnacle Oracle

LIVE
MatchDateHomeXAway
Leverkusen – Wolfsburg04/0466.7%19.0%14.3%
↳ Polymarket Δ+13.7pp-15.0pp+1.3pp
Wolfsburg – Eintracht11/0439.2%26.2%34.6%
Pinnacle Oracle · Updated 24/03/2026
02

Spreads & Totals

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03

Value Signals

POLYMARKET DELTA

Value Signals arise from delta analysis between Pinnacle Oracle and prediction markets (Polymarket). When Pinnacle shows a probability of 62% but Polymarket trades at only 55¢, there is a delta of +7 percentage points — a potential mispricing signal. Thresholds: below 3pp no signal, 3–5pp Watch, 5–10pp Trade, above 10pp Strong Signal.

Loading Value Signals — fetching Polymarket data.

Trade Center

POLYMARKET

From data point to trade. The Oracle identifies fair probability, Polymarket provides the market price — the difference is the edge. Positions can be opened directly on Polymarket.

Trade Center activates when Polymarket markets are available.
04

Season Markets

Season markets move slower than match bets, offering more persistent mispricings. Relevant markets: championship, Champions League qualification (top 4), Europa League place (5–7), and relegation. Deltas between Pinnacle and Polymarket are often larger here than in single matches.

Championship
Bayern Munich98.7%
Dortmund0.6%
Hoffenheim0.3%
RB Leipzig0.3%
Stuttgart0.1%
Top 4 / Champions League
Bayern Munich99.3%
Dortmund95.9%
RB Leipzig67.0%
Stuttgart54.5%
Hoffenheim47.0%
Leverkusen9.5%
Relegation
FC Heidenheim93.8%
St. Pauli45.0%
FC Koln17.7%
Hamburger SV6.6%
Union Berlin5.5%
FC Augsburg4.8%
Top Goalscorer
98%Harry Kane
Harry Kane97.7%
Andrej Kramaric0.5%
Mohammed Amoura0.5%
Deniz Undav0.4%
Serhou Guirassy0.1%
05

Full Matchday

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06

Bundesliga Table

#TeamMPWDLGDPts
1Bayern272241+7270
2BVB271872+3061
3Stuttgart271656+2053
4Leipzig271557+1850
5Hoffenheim271557+1550
6Leverkusen271377+1646
7Eintracht271089-138
8Freiburg2710710-537
9Union278712-1531
10Augsburg279414-1731
11Mainz277911-930
12HSV277911-930
13Gladbach277812-1329
14Werder277713-1728
15Koeln276813-926
16St. Pauli276615-2024
17Wolfsburg275616-2221
18Heidenheim273618-3415
Matchday 27
07

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Recommended Position
08

Methodology

Pinnacle as Truth: Pinnacle is the sharpest bookmaker in the world. After removing the vig (margin), you get the fair probability — the Oracle.

Polymarket Delta: When prediction markets deviate from Pinnacle, one side is wrong. The delta (Oracle − market price) is the signal. Thresholds: ≥3pp Watch, ≥5pp Trade, ≥10pp Strong.

Kelly Criterion: Position size is based on the edge between Oracle and market price. ½ Kelly is the recommended standard — sufficient edge, controlled risk.

Data Sources: Pinnacle odds via TheOddsAPI. Polymarket via Gamma API (public). Fixture data via SportMonks. Updated every 6 hours.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risks. Past results are not indicative of future performance.